NYISO Transition Rate Validation White Paper

by ronfluegge 1. June 2012 16:35


Dr. Singh has concluded that the GADS OS has implemented Method 2 as intended and the software appears to be producing the expected transition rates.

Based on Dr. Singh’s findings in conjunction with the EFORd comparisons, the NYISO has concluded that MARS state transition rate matrices whose probabilities are consistent with concept of the unit being demanded as specified in Method 2 has been successfully implemented.

The objective of the EFORd calculation is to:

1. Find the time spent in various states during demand

2. Converting these times into conditional probabilities

3. Adjusting the times in derated states to equivalent times in the full forced outage state

This results in the LOLE calculation for MARS being based on EFORd and transition rate matrices that satisfy the conditional state probabilities of the units being demanded. The NYISO recommends that this approach be implemented for the upcoming IRM study

Transition Rate Validation White Paper.pdf (302.91 kb)

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